2026 Is Not a Hype Year – It’s a Reality Check for Startups

What will determine success or failure for startups in 2026? AI as a productivity lever, capital-disciplined growth, and technological resilience are moving to the forefront. We asked three HTGF partners which strategies matter now and what distinguishes the most successful founders.

Their perspectives address key future questions: Dr. Tanja Emmerling, focusing on AI, organizational design, and scaling; Gregor Haidl, with a view on Industrial & Deep Tech; and Dr. Nik Raupp, with expertise in sustainability, resilience, and internationalization.

Which trends will shape 2026 – and which are fading?

Gregor Haidl:

2026 will be defined by European technological sovereignty. After years of lagging behind, Europe is now investing heavily in its own solutions for space, AI & computing, energy, and defense. These are long-term developments that will shape not only the year ahead, but the entire decade.

At the same time, we are seeing a renaissance of industrial tech. The enormous pressure to transform is pushing incremental innovation into the background; robotics and AI-driven research & development are becoming mandatory for manufacturing industries due to the shortage of skilled labor and compressed development cycles.

The paradigm of “growth at all costs” is over.

The era of undifferentiated funding waves is coming to an end; substance now clearly outweighs unconditional scaling.

Dr. Nik Raupp:

Unfortunately, 2026 will likely be even more strongly shaped by ongoing geopolitical crises and disruptions. While long-term issues such as climate change may temporarily receive less attention, circular business models and the use of local waste streams are coming into focus as a major opportunity for the European economy.

It is no longer sufficient to rely solely on competitive manufacturing costs. The local and European availability of raw materials must be taken into account.

What is changing: we are moving away from the assumption that global supply chains will always function reliably.

The focus is shifting toward technological resilience.

What must founders pay close attention to in 2026?

Dr. Tanja Emmerling:

Successful founders in 2026 focus uncompromisingly on speed. Performance expectations are rising noticeably — not only in traditional KPIs, but above all in the pace of decision-making, product development, and market entry.
Founders make decisions early, test quickly, and accept uncertainty where others are still seeking reassurance.

Organization, product, and go-to-market are designed to maintain speed even as complexity increases.

At the same time, they think globally and are not slowed down by political isolationist tendencies. Experienced VCs act as sparring partners for focus, timing, and scaling — helping turn speed into a sustainable competitive advantage.

Dr. Nik Raupp:

The challenge of internationalization has not become easier in the current environment. German startups often focus on their home market for too long and later fail — frequently in the U.S. — due to the false assumption that everything works there the same way as at home. My advice:

Internationalization should be strategically planned from the very beginning and prepared for over the long term.

At the same time, it is essential to remain flexible enough to continuously adapt plans within a startup context.

What do the most successful founders do differently?

Dr. Tanja Emmerling:

The key is not to think about innovation in isolation. Successful teams actively integrate corporates into their innovation cycles — as customers, partners, or co-investors — and consciously bring them along at the required pace.

They understand where existing industrial infrastructures can be leveraged and where they themselves must become the new driving force. At the same time, they recognize when it makes more sense to develop new models “on a greenfield,” to overtake established players. What matters is not an either-or decision, but the ability to master both: compatibility with existing systems and the courage to pursue radical new investments.

Gregor Haidl:

Very strong founders manage the balancing act between bold vision and operational reality. They don’t just sell a narrative — such as European competitiveness — but translate it into a concrete, measurable value proposition for the customer.

They think radically from the market perspective, deliver continuous customer traction, and are highly adaptable.

In short, they navigate challenging times by mastering both market positioning and financial performance with equal confidence.